Research & Articles
William Seyfried, Dale Bremmer | Australian Economic Review; 2003
This study makes use of a dynamic Taylor-type model to examine the conduct of monetary policy by central banks that profess to engage in inflation targeting. Previous research regarding inflation targeting and Taylor-type rules is reviewed and a dynamic Taylor-type model is developed. Tests for regime shifts upon the adoption of inflation targeting indicate a significant change in policy in each of the nations in the study for which sufficient data were available. Next, the central bank reaction functions were estimated. Results suggest that most of the central banks conducted a policy of inflation targeting by seeking to contain inflationary pressures rather than reacting to current inflation.
Bradley T. Ewing, William Seyfried | Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2003
This paper examines the Phillips curve relationship when the second moment of inflation is nonlinear. Specifically, we estimate GARCH models that provide evidence consistent with Keynesian-type models that imply output “overshooting” and inflation fluctuations following aggregate demand shocks. Additionally, the evidence suggests that an increase in the conditional variability of inflation leads to higher levels of inflation.
William Seyfried | Southwestern Economic Review, 2001
In this paper, we examine the relationship between economic growth, as
measured by both real GDP and the output gap, and employment in the ten largest states from 1990 to 2003. Models are developed to estimate the employment intensity of economic growth as well as the timing of the relationship between employment and economic growth. Employment intensity is estimated to range from 0.31 to 0.61 in specific states with an estimate of 0.47 for the US as a whole. Also, results indicate that though economic growth has some immediate impact on employment, its effects continue for several quarters in most of the states considered.